Global Warming Ended

According to an article in the British Newspaper The Daily Telegraph website, Global Warming Ended in 1998! The article making this claim is by Bob Carter and is dated September 4, 2006. Dr. Robert (Bob) Carter is a palaeontologist, stratigrapher and marine geologist of more than thirty years professional experience, and a Research Professor at James Cook University (Queensland) and the University of Adelaide (South Australia).

Dr. Carter begins his article thus:

More on Page 2

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4 Responses to Global Warming Ended

  1. jfoc says:

    1998 was an unusually hot year as it featured the strongest El Nino of the century. If you’re talking about long term climate trends, you need to filter out short term weather anomalies like El Nino or volcanic eruptions – an easy way is to plot a 5 year average. This shows the trend hasn’t reversed at all and 1998 was an anomalous year. From Jan to May, 2007 is tied with 1998 as hottest year on record and with no El Nino effect in play.

  2. Murky Research says:

    I believe what Dr. Carter means by “long term climate trends” is 10,000 to Millions of years. 5 years is not long term. And temperatures since 1880 have ONLY increased about 1.4 degrees F. The Earth has over the past 6 Million years, been 5 degrees F. warmer than now. C02 is not the most significant Green House Gas, Water Vapor is many times more significant. There is too much Scientific disagreement about the cause of Global Climate Change to make drastic Expensive changes yet. Yes, we need to reduce Green House Gases where possible, but there is no need to panic fix something which may not be broken. See my previous posts – especially More Global Warming er…COOLING.
    By pointing out that Global Temperatures are the same as 1998, you have proved Dr. Carter’s point???

  3. jfoc says:

    I think you misunderstand some of my comment. When Dr Carter refers to the temperature trend from 1998 to 2005, he’s not talking about a million year trend. And when I refer to 5 year averages, I’m not talking about the temperature trend over 5 years. 5 year averages is a statistical method that allows you to filter out the weather noise in temperature records to view long term trends. Eg – you have El Nino and volcano anomalies that last a few years but if you average out your temperature over 5 years, it smooths out the anomalies to give you a clearer picture of temperature trends (view this comparison of yearly averages to 5 year averages to see what I’m talking about).

    Water vapour is the most dominant greenhouse gas – the IPCC estimate water accounts for around 50% to 60% of the greenhouse effect which is much larger than CO2’s effect. However, water vapour is not a forcing such as other greenhouse gases that are added to the atmosphere. The level of water vapour in the atmosphere is directly related to atmospheric temperature.

    As the ocean and atmosphere temperatures increase, evaporation increases and more water vapour accumulates in the atmosphere. In this sense, water vapour is considered a feedback or amplifier of global warming. In other words, we emit CO2, which warms the world a bit, and this causes more water to vaporize & warm the world more to a higher (more or less) stabilized level. Reducing atmospheric CO2 would cool the earth a bit, which would reduce water vapor, cooling the world more to a lower (more or less) stabilized level. So our emissions (or reductions) have an amplified effect, beyond a purely CO2 effect.

    I read your other post about Dr Patterson thinking the sun is the major driver of climate. In one sense, he’s absolutely right. Earth’s climate is very sensitive to solar activity. In 2005, Sami Solanki at the Max Planck Insitute compared solar activity & temperatures over the past 1150 years and found temperatures closely correlate to solar activity. When sunspot activity was low during the Maunder Minimum in the 1600’s or the Dalton Minimum in the 1800’s, the earth went through ‘small ice ages’. The sun has been unusually hot in the last century – solar output rose dramatically in the early 20th century accompanied by a sharp rise in global temperatures.

    However, Solanki also found the correlation between solar activity and global temperatures ended around 1975. At that point, temperatures started rising while solar activity stayed level. This led him to conclude “during these last 30 years the solar total irradiance, solar UV irradiance and cosmic ray flux has not shown any significant secular trend, so that at least this most recent warming episode must have another source.”

    Ironically, it’s the sun’s close correlation to global temperature which tells us the sun isn’t the driving force behind the last 30 years of global warming.

  4. Murky Research says:

    Well do we need to Panic or is this a subject for further study?
    I have a new post here.

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